In an article I wrote in February 2018 about how Democrat victories and near losses in several state and federal elections following Trump’s November 2016 victory, I documented how these results painted a gloomy picture for the GOP in 2018.
Following a prediction by Donald Trump in August 2018 of a “RED WAVE” in the midterms, I wrote another article where I provided data from the non-partisan Cook Political Report to show how Democrats had out-performed expectations in several House special elections during the 2016-2018 cycle.
Now *final:* Dems overperformed @CookPolitical PVI by an average of 8% in this cycle's 9 House specials where both parties appeared on the final ballot. pic.twitter.com/xJTbCBsnaG
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 9, 2018
Based on this data, it was easy to conclude that Trump’s poor job approval at the time, along with the GOP’s list of broken promises, were creating a shift in the political landscape, all but ensuring a Blue Tsunami in November 2018.
Just a reminder . . . Democrats experienced the largest midterm victory since Watergate in the House. On the state level, Democrats flipped seven gubernatorial offices, gaining the “trifecta of power” (control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers) in six states: Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, and New York. They also broke up existing GOP trifectas in Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.
Now, why did we take this trip down memory lane? Because the stars are aligning for it all to happen again in 2020 following the closer-than-it-should-have-been special election in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District.
Following a two percentage point victory by Dan Bishop (R) over Dan McCready (D) in a deep-red district held by Republicans since 1963 — Trump won it by 12 points in 2016 — Trump took credit for the results on election night.
Dan Bishop was down 17 points 3 weeks ago. He then asked me for help, we changed his strategy together, and he ran a great race. Big Rally last night. Now it looks like he is going to win. @CNN & @MSNBC are moving their big studio equipment and talent out. Stay tuned!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 11, 2019
As he’s prone to do when the facts fail to support his rhetoric, Trump flat-out lied. Bishop never trailed McCready by 17 points. In fact, based on public polling during the two months prior to the election, Bishop was essentially tied with McCready.
As was the case in the special elections during 2016-2018, Democrats outperformed expectations in North Carolina. And while the GOP eventually won, Democrats witnessed a strong swing in their direction, reminiscent of the momentum they created leading up to the 2018 midterms.
Will it continue? Time will tell, but with Trump’s job approval numbers plummeting, his economy tanking, his trade war lost, and a growing number of Republicans weary of Trumpism retiring, the Blue Tsunami of 2018 will look like ripples on a pond compared to what we could see in 2020.
David Leach is the owner of The Strident Conservative.
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